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Expiry-aware reorder planning: the stock you can’t sell

Days of cover tells you when you will run out. It does not tell you what will expire first. Why expiry belongs in every reorder decision, and how to plan with both.

4 min readBy the Possitiv team

Abstract illustration of stacked bars with a curve marking expiry.

Key takeaways

  • Cover and expiry answer different questions; a reorder needs both.
  • Read demand against horizon, seasonality and lead time before deciding.
  • Flag items where expiry arrives before sell-through.
  • Keep a planner approving, adjusting or rejecting every suggestion, with the reason recorded.

Most reorder logic asks one question: when will we run out? For expiry-sensitive stock, such as medicines, food or anything with a shelf life, there is a second question that matters just as much: what will expire before we sell it?

Cover hides expiry

Thirty days of cover looks healthy. But if half of that stock expires in twenty days, you have a write-off coming and a stockout behind it. Cover and expiry need to be read together, batch by batch.

Demand in context

A demand signal on its own is noisy. Read it against the planning horizon, seasonality and lead time, and it becomes a decision: order now, order less, or move existing stock first.

Make the plan reviewable

  • Show days of cover and nearest expiry side by side for every item.
  • Flag items where expiry will arrive before stock is sold through.
  • Suggest an order that accounts for demand and supplier lead time.
  • Let a planner approve, adjust or reject each suggestion, and record why.

Stock AI is being built around this plan: demand, stock cover and expiry in one view, with a person approving every reorder. It is coming soon. Join early access if you want to shape it.

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Questions

Before you ask.

What is days of cover?

The number of days current stock will last at the expected rate of demand. It answers when you will run out, not what will expire first.

Why is expiry not part of most reorder calculations?

Most systems track stock at the item level, not by batch, so expiry dates are invisible to the reorder logic. Planning by batch makes expiry a first-class input.

Should reorders be placed automatically?

We think a planner should approve each suggested order. The system does the gathering and comparing; the person makes the decision and the reason is recorded.

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